UBS Group AG experts predict that Western automakers will lose a fifth of their worldwide market share as a result of the unchecked rise in the number of more widely available and less expensively made Chinese electric vehicles.
According to a forecast released on August 31 by UBS analysts Patrick Hummel and Paul Gong, Chinese automakers will virtually treble their auto market share to 33% by the end of the decade under the direction of BYD Co.
Although German powerhouses Mercedes-Benz Group AG and BMW AG showed their next-generation electric vehicles this week, they won’t be available for purchase until 2025. Chinese manufacturers, such as Nio Inc. and Xpeng Inc., strengthened their presence at the IAA auto show in Munich this week.
With a 25% price advantage over North American and European brands, BYD is the top-selling auto brand in China, allowing the Shenzhen-based business the ability to undercut competitors while expanding internationally.
The predictions made by UBS for the global auto market in 2030 are also noteworthy because Chinese automakers won’t compete in the United States, the second-largest auto market in the world, or make much progress in countries like Japan, South Korea, and India that prefer strong homegrown competitors.
The switch to electric vehicles is being accelerated by businesses like BMW, VW, and Mercedes, which list China as one of their largest markets.