Stock risk appetite may falter.
The risk appetite driving this year’s run in equities is expected to be rattled by banking shocks, an oil shock, and a slowdown in GDP that could push markets back to 2022 lows, according to analysts at JPMorgan Chase Inc.
In the upcoming months, the strategists predicted, “We foresee a shift in risk sentiment and a retest of last year’s low by the market.”
The superiority of technology this year has become significant.
Gains in technology companies have sent the Nasdaq 100 up 20% into a bull market since early January, while the underlying S&P 500 increased 7% in the first quarter of this year after plunging nearly 20% last year.
As traders increase their bets that strains in the banking system will force the Federal Reserve to suspend it’s tightening campaign, the superiority of technology has become even more apparent.
The first cause of stress, longer-term rate hikes, could reappear, according to JPMorgan analysts. “While central banks are still speaking, there is reason to fight inflation and counter market speculation about cuts,” the analysts said.